I MAY BE WRONG IN ASSESSING THE EFFECT OF CORONAVIRUS, BUT SHARING WITH YOU WHAT I READ & RESEARCH.

Dear Investors,

I wish you & everyone who belongs to you is safe and healthy.

Latest data indicate that contagion of COVID has spread rapidly in our country and across the world. In earlier newsletter sent to you on 27.03.2020 corona positives in INDIA were only 606 where today the number of positive cases are approx 72,000.

The one and only immediate remedy was to lock-down the country to stop communal spread. As we are a hugely populous country in comparison to western & europeans countries. Lock-down was the primary solution or act which GOI took to stop the infection.

Lockdown has helped to stop the contagion of the virus but it’s not the solution for this disease.

However,Countries like Germany, South-Korea,France,Belgium have eased the lockdown to restart the economic activities.

Further,Across the world researches are going on to develop the vaccine.

So far ISRAEL & ITALY has claimed to develop the antibody and vaccine. ISRAEL has filed the PATENT and started mass production of Antibodies.

Italy has developed the antibody vaccine which neutralised the corona virus by vaccination.

Though, Both the countries has done animal testing,HUMAN TESTING has not yet been done by both the countries.

In the USA only,more than 100 research are being done.

Some of the Vaccine developing researches are as follows:-
Country
DRUG Name
Anit-Body/Vaccine
Company/Institute
USA
NA
Vaccine
Pfizer & BioNTech(German)
USA
Remdesivir
Antibody
Gilead Science
USA
NA
Antibody
Rengeneron
USA
NA
Antibody
Moderna
USA
NA
Vaccine
Johnson & Johnson & BARDA
CHINA
NA
Vaccine
Sinovac Biotech
CHINA
NA
Vaccine
CanSin Biologics
ITALY
NA
NA
Takis
ISRAEL
NA
Antibody
IIBR
INDIA
NA
NA
Indian Serum Institute of India with University of Oxford Vaccine
INDIA
NA
NA
Zydus-Cadila with Codagenix-Serum Institute of INDIA
INDIA
NA
NA
Indian Immunologicals with Griffith University
INDIA
NA
NA
Bharat Biotech with Thomas Jefferson University
UK
InterFeron Beta
NA
Jenner Institute of Oxford University

It is Strongly believed, sooner or later vaccines will definitely be discovered.

I must tell you that SARS & ZIKA epidemics ended before the vaccine could be developed

So,what opportunity we have in this chaos & anxiety.

Sensex was at 42,273 on 20.JAN.2020 & It made a low of 25638 on 24.03.2020 in 64 Days it lost around 40 % and now its trading around 31,000 recovered 25% from the lower levels made on 24.03.2020.

It is clearly seen that in the short term market is very volatile, but regular and disciplined investments always reap good returns.
Let’s look at some past data with a horizon of Minimum 5 years
(UTI Nifty INDEX Fund Nav Data taken for Calculation)

5 Year Period
SIP
Tenure
SIP Start Date
SIP End Date
Sensex Level @ SIP Start
Sensex Highest Level in 5 Year Period
Sensex Lowest Level in 5 Year Period
Amount Invested
Value Of Investment
XIRR
2006-2010
5000 Rs
60 Months
05-01-2006
31-12-2010
9617 (05-01-2006)
20812 (14-01-2008)
8343 (12-03-2009)
3,00,000
4,38,794
14.23%
2007-2011
5000 Rs
60 Months
05-01-2007
31-12-2011
13860 (05-01-2007)
20812 (14-01-2008)
8343 (12-03-2009)
3,00,000
3,08,360
1.08%
2008-2012
5000 Rs
60 Months
01-01-2008
31-12-2012
20300 (01-01-2008)
20812 (14-01-2008)
8343 (12-03-2009)
3,00,000
3,74,220
8.44%
2009-2013
5000 Rs
60 Months
07-01-2009
31-12-2013
9586 (07-01-2009)
21193 (27-12-2013)
8343 (12-03-2009)
3,00,000
3,75,388
8.56%
2010-2014
5000 Rs
60 Months
07-01-2010
31-12-2014
17615 (07-01-2010)
28559 (01-12-2014)
15360 (20-12-2011)
3,00,000
4,29,597
13.47%
2011-2015
5000 Rs
60 Months
03-01-2011
31-12-2015
20498 (03-01-2011)
28298 (06-08-2015)
15360 (20-12-2011)
3,00,000
3,86,381
9.62%
2012-2016
5000 Rs
60 Months
02-01-2012
31-12-2016
15857 (02-01-2012)
28523 (20-09-2016)
15965 (01-06-2012)
3,00,000
3,63,840
7.40%
2013-2017
5000 Rs
60 Months
01-01-2013
31-12-2017
19714 (01-01-2013)
34056 (29-12-2017)
18246 (20-08-2013)
3,00,000
4,24,359
13.03%
2014-2018
5000 Rs
60 Months
01-01-2014
03-12-2018
20888 (01-01-2014)
38690 (30-08-2018)
20310 (06-02-2014)
3,00,000
3,87,994
9.78%
2015-2019
5000 Rs
60 Months
01-01-2015
31-12-2019
26987 (01-01-2015)
41163 (26-12-2019)
23191 (16-02-2016)
3,00,000
3,99,649
10.86%
2016-2020
5000 Rs
60 Months
01-01-2016
31-12-2020
25580 (01-01-2016)
42273 (20-01-2020)
25638 (24-03-2020)
2,65,000
2,54,000
-1.89%

Going through the above table we can clearly see that even in the worst period of time between 2007-2011, where the sensex tanks more than 50% in a year, though it was very painful to continue SIP;like it is in the current scenario,​SIP investment has not delivered negative return on investment.

Please do not skip analysing the above mentioned table,I make sure you will be able to understand the concept of disciplined investment and fear of losing money will fade out from your mind​.

Once the lockdown lifts and the economy starts operating in a routine and normal way.Things will stabilize very soon.It's just a matter of some months or a year.

If equity markets come down in Next 12-18 months,starting from today it would be the best time to Invest.

I would suggest existing investors not to STOP SIP & if possible, double your SIP for next one year.

For New Investors anytime is the Best time to Start Investing via SIP.

I​n the last I would only say that​ Vaccine will come but opportunity will not….

With Best Wishes

Pankaj Pancharia

Please feel free to connect (​support@fundspru.com​)